The leadership contest for the the Scottish Conservatives has had a busy week. All three candidates currently declared have launched their campaigns and they have had an opportunity to meet members at the constitutional conference held on Saturday in Perth.

Over the course of the contest, we’ll be summarising the developments each week in each camp – the highs, the lows and anything else of note in the campaign. According to our poll, Murdo Fraser and Ruth Davidson are neck and neck with no real clear leader, but it should be stated for the purpose of balance that this poll is only recording first preferences (an STV system is being used in this election) and not all people who have voted in our poll are necessarily party members. However, if the ‘meet & greet’ sessions on Saturday are anything to go by, our poll looks reasonably accurate.

Jackson Carlaw was first to launch his campaign two Fridays ago. Long seen as a leadership contender from many within the party, the campaign launch was something of a more quiet event with just a handful of journalists and hardly any activists present. Jackson’s call for an immediate referendum on independence is the key-stone of his campaign pledges. He believes that this referendum will put to bed once and for all , the calls from nationalists for independence. Despite having a launch aimed almost entirely at party members, Carlaw’s campaign appears to not be picking up much momentum. Much of his campaign is being run by his Parliamentary staff and as a consequence his appeal at the moment does not appear to be particularly broad. This is perhaps the weakest part of his campaign so far – the lack of attention towards his campaign in the media. However, media coverage is not everything and there are many voters who do not use the internet, so a poll such as our own that puts Jackson behind cannot be solely relied upon as an accurate gauge of the true level of support he has. A further weak point in his campaign came with the launching of a petition calling to ‘keep the party’. It is a good cause and one many in the party will associate with, but in a leadership campaign, it is perhaps not the best way of campaigning and thus it is perhaps little surprise that there are currently only 43 signatures to the petition. Jackson has failed to gain attention and interest with his petition so far, so the next couple of weeks will be crucial for Jackson to communicate to party members, as he is well capable of, exactly what he will be like as leader. That start was made this evening when he was interviewed on BBC Newsnight Scotland. Asked a range of questions, he gave simple, succinct and straight answers. He criticised the existing leadership whilst positioning himself as someone who has previously spoken out. From the interview this evening, it would not be sensible to rule out Jackson. There are 7,500 voters in this election many of whom don”t use the internet. Clearly Jackson probably has the most to do out of the three to win, but he is most certainly not out the race.

Second to launch was Murdo Fraser. Heavily trailed in the national media after his announcement of having ‘a new party for Scotland’, his launch was always bound to get attention of hacks everywhere. Indeed, almost the entire Scottish press pack turned up to hear Murdo outline his vision for the new party. Also present were quite a few party members of varying ages and backgrounds. It is probably fair to say that Murdo has stolen the show as far as the media battle goes so far, but whether he has stolen the show in terms of votes is immpossible to tell. What is clear is that there is much more support for Murdo from people south of the border who do not have votes than there are party members in Scotland. Despite this, I spoke to and saw many more people supporting Murdo on Saturday who do have votes. For Murdo, the high and low in his campaign is the same. He has got a lot of media attention and arguably has, by his early announcement shaped the course of the debate, but whether that will translate into the necessary amount of votes remains to be seen. The dynamics of the election have changed from purely one of who is best to lead the party, to do members want to have a new party or not. The low point so far was the widespread negative reaction to Murdo’s plans from many within the Scottish party. He has attracted flack, but at the same time praise from many, particularly south of the border for his ‘bold’ vision. Several financial backers have announced they would not fund Murdo’s new party, but others have intimated that they would consider offering financial support if Murdo wins. Murdo has stated that he has a £1m target for fundraising and met with current SNP donor, Brian Souter last week to discuss support for Fraser’s new party. If Murdo can attract big names to support him financially, his campaign will be significantly strengthened. However, since being deputy leader, evidence of him instigating a fundraising programme is sparse so the outcome here will be interesting.  Murdo has a real chance of winning the election, but he will have a lot of convincing to do if he is to get the support and trust of particularly the older generation who don’t use the internet and who don’t attend hustings. He also has quite a task in keeping the momentum of his campaign going as the other candidates seek to gain the media’s attention.

Last to launch their campaign was Ruth Davidson. Making her announcement of her intention to be a candidate earlier than planned to counter the coverage being given to Fraser’s plans, Ruth’s campaign has built momentum quickly. She has the support of John Lamont MSP amongst others and has a very capable team running the campaign. Ruth is young, she’s energetic and she is vibrant. These qualities all look good in the media and to an extent will appeal to some party members, particularly those of the younger generation who find it easy to identify with her. Ruth’s ability to get media coverage in the face of the mass coverage of Fraser’s plans shows that she has the ability to get noticed in the media. However, like Murdo’s campaign, the winning formula will go further than the TV studio. This is something Davidson clearly recognises as she plans to visit all 59 Scottish constituencies between now and the election. It is a tall order, but if she is serious about winning, its a must. The campaign took a dent on Sunday after Davidson had to sack one of her Parliamentary staff after a video surfaced showing him burning an EU flag and sectarian sentiments being voiced, although not by the staffer himself it would seem. Whether this will come to damage the campaign in the long run is impossible to tell. She also received a valuable endorsement in Lord Forsyth, the former Secretary of State for Scotland. Ruth has positioned herself as the modern candidate, it really comes down to whether party members want a modern candidate.

As a side, if the election comes down to campaigning websites (which it doesn’t), Ruth and Murdo are leading the way by the fact that they have websites. Ruth’s site is marginally better than Murdo’s, but both are not particularly attractive and appear at the moment to be more of an information site than a campaign site. Jackson is yet to launch his website. The holding page says “coming mid-September”. The problem is in this media age, the lack of a website means there is no central online portal for the campaign. Without a site for much longer he will be left behind and with the lack of aulity on the other tw sites, it shouldn’t be hard to win the website ‘war’.

There is still a long way to go. There is still about a month until ballot papers are issued and all three candidates have hustings which will provide members a chance to hear their pitches for themselves. They also need to provide more detail on matters of policy detail. Murdo Fraser has the vision of a new party, Ruth Davidson wants to keep the status quo, but with a different message and Jackson Carlaw wants to have a referendum on independence which he believes would result in the Scottish Conservatives ceasing to dance to the SNP jig.

UPDATE: Jackson has now launched his site stating that since the leadership election has been officially called after the approval of the new constitution it is now time to launch a website. On first looks, it seems quite good. It is clearly a campaign site and is smooth, has a clear interface and is professionally produced. I understand that Murdo’s website was also professionally produced, but with the way it looks that is somewhat hard to believe.