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Henry Hill is the Editor of http://www.openunionism.com/ and author of the blog Dilettante. He is an active member of the Conservative and Unionist Party.  Henry argues that Murdo Fraser’s plan for a ‘Made in Scotland’ Conservative Party will  be just as bad for the Conservatives and the UK as the separation of the Ulster Unionists was, if not worse.

Murdo Fraser has launched his leadership bid for the Scottish Conservatives by suggesting they disband. The idea is not, as pointed out on ConHome and elsewhere, without precedent. Before 1965 the Unionist Party represented the Conservatives north of the border and were, on national issues, essentially indistinguishable.

Nor is the idea without international precedent. The oft-cited example is Germany, where the Christian Democrat Union is represented by the Christian Social Union in more conservative, Catholic Bavaria. In Australia, the principle has been taken so far that the right is represented by no less than five parties, three with regional distinctions, that are collectively referred to as ‘The Coalition’.

Yet for all that, I remain deeply sceptical of, and opposed too, Mr Fraser’s proposal. The reason for this is simple: based on the plan’s historical augers and its own political logic, I don’t think it will work in the interests of the party or the country.

Let’s look at why. The old Unionist Party is often cited by proponents of this scheme as part of the ‘proud tradition’ of Scottish Conservatism, as indeed it is. But the nature of its historical significance has been fundamentally misread. It was not successful in Scotland merely because it bore a different name and had a Scottish leadership: a number of other social, cultural and political factors played a fundamental role. The Unionist Party operated in a political climate completely alien to the Scotland of today, and the idea that we can simply re-establish it is little short of fantasy.

Yet the UK does have an example of branch of the Conservative Party that separated from, but remained within, the party in a similar manner to what Murdo Fraser is proposing: the Ulster Unionist Party. Originally simply a Conservative branch in the six counties of Ireland that remained within the union, the UUP originally functioned much as Mr Fraser’s new party (hopefully not styled the Freedom Party or anything similarly American) is apparently intended to. It focused on the devolved legislature while providing Unionist MPs who took the Conservative Whip at Westminster.

Yet over time, the two diverged. The UUP was after all subservient to a distinct electorate. When that electorate was at odds with the national Conservative Party, it had no reason to support the Conservatives. Thus the UUP MPs withdrew the Conservative whip in 1974 and the Ulster Unionist Council withdrew from the Conservative Party altogether in the mid-eighties.

This left the national Conservative Party with no means of exerting its influence in Northern Ireland, a sorry state of affairs that contributed to the complete de-normalisation of that province’s politics. The prospects of a Scottish affiliate are scarcely more promising.

As has already been said, a name change is not enough. But if the party doesn’t succumb to the temptation to start ‘standing up for Scotland’ by attacking the ‘English’ Conservatives, what progress is it expected to make? Why should this party be expected to assist the Conservatives in enacting policy that is unpopular in Scotland? If being the third-based party and sticking to conservative and unionist principles is not good enough for Mr Fraser, how far might he or his successors as leader go to win votes? Federalism, or perhaps even further? The recent Northern Irish tuition fee decision – supported by the unionist parties – demonstrates how hard it can be for a regional party to keep the national interest first and foremost.

Unlike the CDU, which can keep the CSU in line by threatening to contest Bavarian elections, the national Conservatives can no more credibly threaten a Scottish affiliate than a Northern Irish one, at least if the defeatist logic behind this plan is correct. If and when it does pull out, the national Conservative Party will have simply made a big donation of material and political capital to an unreliable ally beholden to an electorate in which it has little faith, and hammered another nail into this country’s coffin.